USBR Research Methodology.
The following discussion describes the research process U.S. Business Reporter applies to collect industry, company, and market information for all types of reports. The research process is divided into five different sections as folows:
1. Primary Internal Research
Primary research is designed to develop a profile of a market or industry in which there is no prior data. U.S. Business Reporter staff scours the world through surveys, telephone interviews, customer anlysis/patterns to develop preliminary primary data to develop the structure of a market environment.
2. Secondary Research from Published Sources.
Occassionally, U.S. Business Reporter uses data from third party sources to compile a market report. In general, this includes information from federal and state government resources for statistics, international trade associations, industry trade associations, annual reports, SEC 10k and 10Q statements. In addition, we use this information to compile other types of data to make preliminary estimates on a market.
3. Data Consolidation
U.S. Business Reporter gathers data from numerous sources and compiles the data to match information. This allows us to avoid any inconsistencies and improves the accuracy of the reports. In addition, we perform some research data internally when we cannot find the correct information from outside sources. This is a very important process that enhances the quality of all reports.
4. Preliminary Analysis
U.S. Business Reporter uses preliminary data to estimate some market data. Often, it takes long periods of time to compile data after a fiscal year has completed. Therefore, we use preliminary estimates on what we think the end of period numvbers are believed to result. We base thisinformation on prior data we have on file to construct information on what the market is like today. After new information becomes availble , we will adjust these numbers to develop the final period data.
U.S. Business Reporter uses a proprietary method to forecast industry sales activity. The forecasting process is partially computerized with objective input from our industry analyst staff who compile the data from different sources. U.S. Business Reporter looks at prior industry data to determine trends about sales and industry activity. However, this is only the beginning. We do not base our forecasts on what happened in the past. We do an initial evaluation by looking at past industry data but our final numbers are not necessarily based on the past. Using only prior industry data ( or regression analysis) assumes only the linearity of data which is often wrong. Some industries constantly seem to grow while other industries are contracting. This is why we use many diifferent techniques to determine final forecast numbers.
U.S. Business Reporter forecasts are highly objective. We consider multiple independent variables when developing our forecasts. We consider such factors as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Real GDP, Total Consumption (or Consumer Spending), Nonresidential Fixed Investment, Industrial Production, Housing Starts, Unit Automobile Sales, Personal Savings Rates, National Unemployment rates Tresury Bill rates, and Treasury Notes rates.
Depending on the industry, we use different techniques and statistics from above. For example, semiconductor equipment is derived from the demand for semiconductor chips which is derived from the products that use microchips. Therefore, semiconductor equipment sales volume must consider Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and industrial production rather than consumer spending to determine forecasting numbers. However, apparel sale end users are final consumers. Therefore, any forecast must consider total consumption or consumer spending to forecast accurately.
U.S. Business Reporter considers both macroeconomic and microeconomic factors. Microeconomic factors can substantially impact forecasts. This can include shortages, strikes, supply problems, defects, capital problems, mergers, consolidations and a wide variety of other factors.
In summary, we compile these reports on a quarter to quarter basis. However, forecast numbers are always changing based on information that we have and factors in the general economy.We will adjust forecast numbers accordingly as macro and micro factors impact different industries and their future prospects.