• Standard Statistics
• Statistical Modeling
• Growth Models

About our Forecasting Methodology.

Introduction.

U.S. Business Reporter uses a proprietary method to forecast industry sales activity. The forecasting process is partially computerized with objective input from our industry analyst staff who compile the data from different sources. U.S. Business Reporter looks at prior industry data to determine trends about sales and industry activity. However, this is only the beginning. We do not base our forecasts on what happened in the past. We do an initial evaluation by looking at past industry data but our final numbers are not necessarily based on the past. Using only prior industry data ( or regression analysis) assumes only the linearity of data which is often wrong. Some industries constantly seem to grow while other industries are contracting. This is why we use many diifferent techniques to determine final forecast numbers.

U.S. Business Reporter forecasts are highly objective. We consider multiple independent variables when developing our forecasts. We consider such factors as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Real GDP, Total Consumption (or Consumer Spending), Nonresidential Fixed Investment, Industrial Production, Housing Starts, Unit Automobile Sales, Personal Savings Rates, National Unemployment rates Tresury Bill rates, and Treasury Notes rates.

Depending on the industry, we use different techniques and statistics from above. For example, semiconductor equipment is derived from the demand for semiconductor chips which is derived from the products that use microchips. Therefore, semiconductor equipment sales volume must consider Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and industrial production rather than consumer spending to determine forecasting numbers. However, apparel sale end users are final consumers. Therefore, any forecast must consider total consumption or consumer spending to forecast accurately.

U.S. Business Reporter considers both macroeconomic and microeconomic factors. Microeconomic factors can substantially impact forecasts. This can include shortages, strikes, supply problems, defects, capital problems, mergers, consolidations and a wide variety of other factors.

In summary, we compile these reports on a quarter to quarter basis. However, forecast numbers are always changing based on information that we have and factors in the general economy.We will adjust forecast numbers accordingly as macro and micro factors impact different industries and their future prospects.